Clearinghouse
TMIP Newsletter Archive
TMIPConnection
The Travel Model Improvement Program Newsletter
Issue 11, December 2000
The Travel Model Improvement Program is sponsored by:
U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Federal Transit Administration
Table of Contents
TRANSIMS Workshop at TRB
Software Consultant Selected
EDP Announcement Coming
Soon to be Available TMIP Publications
FY 2000 Travel Model Improvement Program Seminars
TMIP Seminars in 2001
New FHWA Web site
Are You Missing the Action on the TMIP E-mail List?
TRANSIMS Workshop at TRB
Two major sessions and a roundtable meeting at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board are planned for TRANSIMS. A workshop demonstrating use of TRANSIMS will occur on Sunday, January 7, from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm in the Jefferson East Room of the Hilton Washington Hotel. The workshop will be presented by Dr. Richard Beckman of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Beckman has been responsible for much of the principal work on TRANSIMS. His presentation will demonstrate how each of the individual TRANSIMS modules works and how the modules interact. Reservations and payment are not required, but attendance will be limited to 100.
On Monday, January 8, staff from the Los Alamos National Laboratory will describe their work on TRANSIMS over the past year and the current status of each of the modules. Of particular interest will be progress on the Selector and the Router, both of which have made considerable progress. These are the last two modules to be developed and are critical to feedback and multimodal capabilities of TRANSIMS. This session will convene at 1:30 p.m. in the Georgetown West Room at the Hilton. A status report on the case study currently being conducted in Portland, Oregon, will also be presented in this session.
The roundtable meeting on Tuesday, January 9, from 5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. in the Dupont Room of the Hilton will be an opportunity for discussing practical issues related to the application of TRANSIMS. This session will not deal with theoretical aspects of TRANSIMS except as they affect its application. Persons on the TRANSIMS teams from USDOT, LANL and Portland METRO will be available to discuss their experiences setting up and operating TRANSIMS in Portland.
Persons whose agencies are interested in being one of the Early Deployment sites for installation of TRANSIMS are welcome to attend this meeting. Information about the pending solicitation of Early Deployment Program participants may be provided at that time.
Questions about the TRANSIMS sessions at the TRB meeting should be directed to LaRon Smith (llsmith@lanl.gov), Robert Radics (robert.radics@fhwa.dot.gov) or Gordon Shunk (g-shunk@tamu.edu). Also, monitor the TMIP E-mail list for late breaking information.
Software Consultant Selected
The Los Alamos National Laboratory has announced the award of a contract with PricewaterhouseCoopers to develop specialized computer software for the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS). TRANSIMS was developed by the Laboratory as part of the Travel Model Improvement Program, funded by US DOT, FHWA, FTA and EPA.
TRANSIMS was created from advanced computer simulation capabilities originally developed for military applications. It shows how key technologies developed for national security purposes can be applied to solve major traffic problems faced daily by civilians. Originally designed to run on multiple workstations, TRANSIMS has been adapted to perform over a parallel computing system termed "Rockhopper Cluster," a group of 256 networked Intel Pentium II personal computer processors at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Advanced Computing Laboratory.
Realizing that transportation planners would have less sophisticated computer systems available to them than do national laboratory researchers, the simulation team worked to maintain flexibility in the computer hardware combinations required to run the TRANSIMS programs. PricewaterhouseCoopers will further develop the user interface software and package the TRANSIMS software to create a version more useable for transportation planning applications.
The laboratory is demonstrating TRANSIMS capability in applications for two transportation planning agencies. The initial application was for a limited area of Dallas. The models are currently simulating region wide roadway traffic and transit conditions in Portland, Oregon. TRANSIMS will permit transportation planners to provide more accurate travel and air pollution emissions estimates and permit evaluation of new approaches to reducing traffic congestion and air pollution.
EDP Announcement Coming
Early in 2001 the FHWA will request proposals from Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and states wanting to be among the first to implement TRANSIMS. The opportunity for MPOs and states to participate in this Early Deployment Program was originally announced in September 1999. Details on the content, format and schedule for these proposals will be announced by FHWA Division Offices, FTA Regional Offices, and via the TMIP e-mail list. If you have any questions about the MPO solicitation process, please call Robert Radics (404-562-3692) or robert.radics@fhwa.dot.gov.
Soon to be Available TMIP Publications
- Data Collection and Modeling Requirements for Assessing Transportation Impacts of Micro-Scale Design.
By Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc.\KPMG Peat Marwick LLP
Abstract: "Micro-scale design" is a term that has been coined recently by transportation and land use planners to describe the human-scale features of the built environment. This concept focuses on accessibility to desired activities rather than on mobility. Micro-scale design describes the physical features of development at the level-of-detail of a neighborhood or a single building site. - Land Use Forecasting Case Studies: A Synthesis and Summary.
By Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc.
Abstract: Land use forecasting is one of the first steps in the travel demand forecasting process. It is particularly important for the planning of urban infrastructure, such as the highway system and public transportation network. This report provides a synthesis and summary of five case studies of existing land use forecasting models currently in use by MPOs. The models were chosen because they represent the range of best practices in land use forecasting as currently undertaken in the United States. - Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual.
By Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc./ Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Abstract: This validation manual provides guidance on how to perform reasonableness checks on the latest generation of models commonly included in the four-step modeling process. While it is impossible to specify exact checks for every possible model, this manual will describe families of checks and provide concrete examples of validation checks. The manual also provides tips for regions with limited resources for model validation.
FY 2000 Travel Model Improvement Program Seminars
More than 120 persons representing State Departments of Transportation, MPOs, consultants, and transit agencies attended TMIP seminars in Fiscal Year 2000. The TMIP purpose is to advance state-of the-art application of travel forecasting tools for model users. Seminars covering three topics were scheduled and located strategically around the U.S. to encourage participation from practitioners across the country. Outstand-ing lecturers served as instructors and facilitators for each session. Instructors encouraged participants to share problems encountered and practical experiences in order to increase the direct applicability of the seminars for their daily uses.
The sessions began in February 2000 with Jerry Faris and Dane Ismart leading the Vehicle Availability Forecasting seminar held in Kissimmee, FL. A second session on this topic was held in Seattle, WA in September. The instructors focused on the importance of incorporating a tailored vehicle availability model into the modeling sequence, reviewed basic and advanced practice, and described innovative, dynamic models of vehicle availability.
Denver, CO and Charlotte, NC served as host cities for the Land Use Activities Seminar taught by Dr. Paul Waddell. The discussion began with an analysis of the state-of-the-practice and existing land use models. Thereafter, various tools, data requirements and specific applications were highlighted. The session closed with an examination of several case studies and assessment of experiences with some common land use models. Also explained was the model UrbanSim, which is available on-line for test applications.
Tom Rossi taught the Model Calibration and Validation Seminar in San Diego, CA and Arlington, TX. The seminar emphasized the importance of the calibration and validation phases of the modeling process, particularly in light of numerous changes to the models and recent policy changes, such as the Clean Air Act Amendments. The day's activities were structured to first review the four-step process, and then stress the essential idea of incorporating reason-ableness checks as a part of calibrating each individual model component.
Each session enlightened attendees about advances and techniques that can improve the accuracy of model outputs. Participants expressed high levels of satisfaction with the seminars, providing a mean rating of 8.29 on a 10 point scale.
TMIP Seminars in 2001
Travel Model Calibration and Validation will describe, explain and demonstrate the process and procedures for estimating, calibrating and validating regional travel forecasting models with base year data. Procedures applicable to each of the standard 4-step travel models will be described. Procedures for performing checks for reasonableness of travel forecasts will also be described. The seminar will be lead by Tom Rossi.
Forecasting Land Use Activities will describe, explain and demonstrate methods and data sources for forecasting the nature and amount of land using activities, specifically population, dwelling units, basic employment and service employment. The procedures addressed will include estimating control totals for an urban region and distributing activities among subregional analysis areas. This seminar will include a rudimentary description of land use models and other allocation procedures. Procedures for assimilating needed data from various sources and checking the reliability of that data will also be described. The seminar will be led by Paul Waddell.
Vehicle Availability Forecasting will describe, explain and demonstrate key concepts, data sources and procedures for forecasting vehicle ownership and availability. These procedures will be consistent with and capable of producing data readily usable with the standard 4-step travel forecasting models. This seminar will be led by Jerry Faris.
Each seminar will be conducted completely in one day. The seminars will each accommodate 30 participants, first come-first served basis. Procedure manuals developed in TMIP will be the basis of the seminars, and those manuals will be given to attendees. The seminar presentations will describe recent advances in the state of the practice for the seminar subject.
The seminars will be free of charge. The final schedule and locations of the seminars have not been determined; they will be announced on the TMIP Web site (tmip.tamu.edu) and the TMIP e-mail list. More information on the seminars can be obtained by contacting Lisa Day (817-462-0530) or lday@tamu.edu.
TMIP would also like some feedback on what courses might be of interest to transportation professionals in the future.
New FHWA Web site
http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/Travel/plan2op.htm
The Office of Metropolitan Planning and Programs has developed and opened a new web site to assist state and local transportation planning agencies looking for effective ways to consider management and operations investments, programs and actions in planning contexts. Management and operations have become more critical in light of the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) which defines seven factors that must be addressed within the planning process. One of the seven factors, Promote efficient system management and operation, will require breaking new ground for many agencies.
http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/Travel/plan2op.htm provides a variety of resources to help incorporate system management and operations into the planning process. It includes a forum for the exchange of planners' experiences and a document library that may be searched for relevant documents. The documents are organized into the following categories:
- Support of Traditional Long-Range Planning Activities
- Support of Traditional Short-Range Planning Activities
- Systems Deployment Planning Support
- Institutional Arrangements
- System Performance Monitoring, and
- Linking Planning and Programming of Systems Management/Operations Projects
The web site also includes two sketch planning tools to aid planners: Sketch Methods for Estimating Incident Related Improvements; and the ITS Deployment Analysis System. The Office of Metropolitan Planning and Programs hopes that many planners will visit the site and become active participants in the discussion group.
Are You Missing the Action on the TMIP E-mail List?
Travel demand modelers around the country are participating in discussions that address the big and little decisions necessary to develop and use transportation demand models. Over 500 transportation professionals from academia, state, MPO, and local agencies are subscribed to TMIP email list and are learning from professionals around the world.
Discussions on the email list include news in travel demand forecasting and transportation planning, job announcements, announcements of upcoming conferences and courses, inquiries on transportation data and experiences, and modeling techniques.
Transportation questions posed to the participants have included:
We are all aware of the inaccuracies in travel forecasts, especially if looking at individual street or transit route segments. From an analytical standpoint, we can often judge the usefulness of specific forecast numbers by first examining the validation results. However, it is easy for a less-experienced person to assume a specific "raw" forecast number is a model's best-guess absolute number.
My Question is as follows: do you make your "raw" travel forecast numbers easily available to all? And if you do, how do you control the potential for mis-use?
This question, from a very active and helpful list member, sparked a conversation which lasted several weeks and was very informative.
Questions on use of data and data adjustments practices, such as the question below, have also been very informative.
I would like to determine to what extent other MPOs are using day-of-the-week factors to adjust their traffic count data. It is indicated in the HPMS Field Manual that it is required, but we have not been using them at MRGCOG. We do not think they add any significant accuracy to the estimation of AAWDT, since all counts are 48 hours in duration, which covers portions of three days; e.g. a count set on Monday a.m. includes part of Monday, all of Tuesday, and part of Wednesday.
I realize that this question sort of goes outside the modeling realm, but I'm sure some of you have some knowledge of this area.
Are you part of these conversations? If not, please go to the TMIP web page and subscribe today!
To subscribe to this free newsletter send an e-mail to TMIP@tamu.edu or contact Gary Thomas at (ph.) (979) 458-3263, (fax) (979) 845-6001, (mail) Gilchrist, Room 112, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3135 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3135
