Quick Response Freight Manual
Final Report
September 1996
Prepared for:
- Federal Highway Administration
- Office of Planning and Environment
- Technical Support Services for Planning Research
Prepared by:
- Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
- Comsis Corporation
- University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
DTFH61-93-C-00075
DTFH61-93-C-00216
Table of Contents
Appendices
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acknowledgments
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Objectives of the Quick Response Freight Manual
1.2 Organization of the Manual
2.0 Factors Affecting Freight Demand
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Factors that Affect Freight Demand
2.3 Summary
3.0 Simple Growth Factor Methods
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Growth Factors Based on Historical Traffic Trends
3.3 Growth Factors Based on Economic Projections
3.3.1 Analysis Steps Explained
3.3.2 Sources of Economic Forecasts
3.3.3 Improving the Demand Forecasts
3.3.4 Sensitivity Analysis
3.4 Alternative Forecasting Methods
3.5 Illustrative Example
4.0 Incorporating Commercial Vehicles Into the Travel Forecasting Process
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Trip Generation
4.2.1 Example
4.2.2 Alternative Approaches
4.3 External Stations
4.3.1 Example
4.3.2 Alternative Approaches
4.4 Trip Distribution
4.4.1 Example
4.4.2 Alternative Approaches
4.5 Calibration
4.5.1 Example
4.5.2 Alternative Approaches
4.6 Traffic Assignment
4.7 Time-of-Day Characteristic
5.0 Site Analysis
5.1 Overview
5.2 Data Gathering
5.3 Network Identification
5.4 Trip Generation
5.5 Trip Distribution
5.6 Trip Assignment
5.7 Level-of-Service Analysis
5.8 Illustrative Example
6.0 Data Collection to Support More Accurate Freight Analysis
6.1 Overview
6.2 Primary Data Collection
6.2.1 Surveys
6.2.2 In-Depth Interviews with Shippers and Carriers
6.2.3 Establishment of Freight Advisory Committees
6.3 Secondary Data Collection
7.0 Principles of Application
7.1 Introduction
7.1.1 Sizing the Effort
7.2 Major Steps of Application
7.3 Data Stretching
7.4 Resolving Data Contradictions
7.5 Levels of Validation
7.5.1 Need for Recalibration of an Existing Forecast
7.5.2 The Need for Orderly Freight Information at Both State and Regional Levels
7.6 Issues in Using Standard Travel Forecasting Software
7.6.1 Purpose Designation
7.6.2 Rationalizing Production-Attraction versus Origin-Destination
7.6.3 Integrating Freight and Passenger Forecasts
7.7 A Quick Approach for Recategorizing Employment Data
7.8 Network Options for Site Impact Analysis
8.0 Statewide Freight Forecasting in Support of Regionwide Forecasting
8.1 Introduction
8.2 The Interface at External Stations
8.2.1 Statewide Trendlines at External Stations
8.3 Kansas Statewide Agricultural Commodity Model
8.3.1 Elements of the Model
8.3.2 Weaknesses Recognized by Kansas DOT
8.3.3 Overall Assessment of KDOT's Freight Model for Regionwide Forecasting
8.4 Wisconsin Intermodal Freight Model
8.4.1 Overview
8.4.2 Building the Commodity Flow Data Set
8.4.3 Freight Forecast
8.4.4 Intermodal Adjustments
8.4.5 Determination of Truck Traffic
8.4.6 Observation about the Wisconsin Statewide Model
8.5 Use of Intermodal Management Systems
8.5.1 IMS Possibilities
8.5.2 Review of Selected IMS Plans
8.5.3 Discussion and Recommended IMS Elements
8.6 Discussion of Statewide Contributions
9.0 Case Study Applications to Urban Areas
9.1 Lawrence, Kansas
9.1.1 Background on Lawrence
9.1.2 Lawrence Freight Transportation Model
9.1.3 Calibration for Internal Consistency
9.1.4 Observations about Lawrence
9.2 Fox Cities and Green Bay, Wisconsin
9.2.1 Introduction
9.2.2 Fox Cities Case Study Background
9.2.3 Fox Cities Freight Transportation Model
9.2.4 Calibration to Ground Counts
9.3 Site Impact Analysis: Services Plus, Green Bay, WI
9.3.1 Introduction and Description of Case Study Site
9.3.2 Steps in Adapting a Model for Site Impact Analysis
9.3.3 Analysis of Results
9.4 Summary
Appendices
Appendix A. Glossary of Terms
Appendix B. Selected References
Appendix C. Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Codes
Appendix D. Trip Generation Summary Tables
Appendix E. Internal versus External Truck Trips
Appendix F. Time-of-Day Characteristics
Appendix G. Guide to State Data Centers
Appendix H. Guide to State Trucking Associations
Appendix I. Bureau of Census Regional Offices
Appendix J. National Trade Associations
Appendix K. Freight Transportation Data Sources
Appendix L. Commercial Data Sources
Appendix M. Recent Freight and Truck Surveys
List of Figures
4.1 Simplified Quick Response Freight Forecasting
Procedure
4.2 Map of Hypothetical Study Area for
the Example
5.1 Location of Planned Port
Facility in the Hypothetical Study Area
8.1
Danville External Stations
8.2 Network for
Kansas Statewide Freight Model Highlighting Interstate Highways
8.3 Forecasted Truck Volumes by the Kansas Statewide Model
8.4 Overview of the Truck Component of Wisconsin's Freight
Forecasting Model
8.5 State-County
Disaggregation Process
9.1 Street System in
Lawrence Highlighting Major Through Routes
9.2
Employment Concentrations in Central Lawrence
9.3
All-or-Nothing Assigned Truck Volumes in Lawrence
9.4
Fox Cities Urbanized Area and Major Highway
9.5
Assigned Traffic Volumes in the Fox Cities Area
9.6
Services Plus Site (Middle Right)
List of Tables
2.1 Demand Factors vs. Freight Characteristics
4.1 Trip Generation Rates
4.2
Percent Distribution of Traffic by Vehicle Class
4.3
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) per Lane
4.4
Temporal Distribution of Commercial Vehicle Traffic in Urban Areas
5.1 Trip Generation Rates for Air Cargo Operations
6.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Truck Interview Surveys
6.2 Freight Planning Issues for State DOT's and MPO's
7.2 Definitions of Employment Categories
7.3 Matrix of Employment Splits
7.4 Application of Splits to TAZ #15
8.1 Initial Daneville Matrix of Weights
8.2 Daneville Weighted Destination Trips
8.3 Initial Daneville External-to-External Trips
8.4 Revised Daneville Matrix of Weights
8.5 Revised Daneville External-to-External Trips
Acknowledgments
This freight planning manual was prepared for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) under Contract No. DTFH61-93-C-00075 by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. and Contract No. DTFH61-93-C-00216 by COMSIS Corporation.
Members of the research team included Dr. Harry S. Cohen, Dr. Roemer M. Alfelor and Krista L. Rhoades from Cambridge Systematics Inc.; Prof. Alan J. Horowitz, Suparna Chatterjee, and Dr. Michael McAdams from the University of Wisconsin in Milwaukee; and Deborah W. Matherly and Art Sosslau from COMSIS Corporation.
We would also like to thank the following for their contributions: Randall E. Wade, Douglas F. Dalton, John Hartz, Donald R. Uelman and Dwan Krahn from Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT); Michael Schumacher, President, Services Plus, Green Bay, Wisconsin; Fred Sherman, Lawrence/Douglas County Metropolitan Planning Office; Richard Miller from Kansas Department of Transportation (KDOT); Greg Keil, City of Menasha, Wisconsin; Ken Theine and Walt Raith, East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission; Chris Knight and Pat M. Vaile, Brown County Planning Commission, Wisconsin; and numerous trucking and warehousing firms in the Fox Valley area of Wisconsin.
Many thanks to Alan Pisarski for reviewing the freight planning data sources, to the American Trucking Association and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) for extensive use of their materials, and to all the Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO's) and other planning agencies who responded to the surveys.
Finally, we are very grateful to both Dane Ismart and Monica Francois of the Federal Highway Administration for providing us technical guidance in preparing this manual.
