This effort will research and document the value structures and decision processes that travelers in the U.S. use to schedule their regular travel and develop forecasting methods based on the research findings. The research will specifically identify trip valuation, prioritization, scheduling and schedule actions in response to changes in transport service availability and quality. This project will:
1. Develop a classification structure for the decision processes that travelers use to schedule their regular travel. - first version complete
2. Develop innovative aggregate and disaggregate modeling techniques that dynamically adjust person travel by time of day according to changes in transport service availability, quality and policy. - data identification continues. Metdhod development underway
3. Demonstrate the techniques using available data - data identification continues
4. Develop materials for practitioner implementation and stakeholder information on the research findings, classification structure, methods, and demonstration results.
The work will proceed in three primary tasks:
1. Schedule Research
This task will describe and define the value systems and decision processes that travelers in the U.S. use to schedule their regular travel. The effort will identify trip valuation, prioritization, scheduling and schedule actions in response to changes in transport service availability and quality.
Task 1 is complete.
2. Technology Development
This task will develop aggregate and disaggregate forecasting techniques that implement the schedule research findings and are consistent with the classification structure. These techniques will be sensitive to changes in transport service quality, reliability, and appropriate TDM policies. These techniques will be suitable for use in existing and emerging travel forecasting applications.
The trip based approach is complete. The activity based approach is under review.
3. Technology Demonstration
The aggregate and disaggregate procedures will be demonstrated using existing networks and socio-demographic data for a given region. The demonstration will include tests involving new transport services, transport service degradation, and a policy change. Comparisons will include base year and sensitivity tests consistent with the classification structure developed during schedule research.
DRCOG (Denver) is assisting in the evaluation of the trip based approach. San Francisco County is assisting with the tour based approach.
To develop understanding and methods for forecasting traveler schedule responses to congestion and policy changes.
Gardner
Ongoing